Novartis is expected to take the lead in the newest class of hypertension treatments when it launches aliskiren in 2006.

Analysts Datamonitor point to doctor's preferences in hypertension moving from ACE inhibitors to Angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) and say that the newer oral renin inhibitors, among them aliskiren, could overtake both classes in terms of their efficacy and side-effects profile.

Paula Fyans, senior cardiovascular analyst at Datamonitor, said: "To date, there is little to suggest [aliskiren] will be anything less than a blockbuster."

The analysts estimate that Novartis' drug, which is due to be launched in the US and the EU in late 2006, will exceed $1 billion in sales by 2008 before reaching total sales of $3.6 billion by 2012.

Fyans believes the rising incidence of type II diabetes and obesity, along with continued unhealthy lifestyles will continue to drive up prevalence rates and that this is driving pharma's interest in the therapy area.

"The antihypertensive market continues to attract a high level of R&D investment for two reasons: Obviously the financial incentive in developing a drug that can demonstrate an advance in antihypertensive efficacy over existing products. Secondly, the continued growth in the worldwide prevalence of hypertension guarantees target patients for any successful drug," she said.

She added: "Even drugs offering relatively little innovative advance, but perhaps addressing a particular niche patient group, can achieve substantial sales."

Almost 17 million people in the UK currently suffer from hypertension and, although this figure is expected to grow to more than 18 million by 2012, there is currently no cure for the condition. 

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Thursday , July 01, 2004

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